CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-06T08:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-06T08:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28508/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is likely a large dimming region in the vicinity of AR 3536 which begins around 2024-01-06T05:04Z (best observed in GOES SUVI 171/195 due to an SDO outage at the time) and spanned about E20->W10 and N03->S08, deflected largely south and east from the AR. A complex multi-peaked flare best observed in GOES SUVI 131 occurred with this event, prompting 4 separate mid-level C-class flares associated with this event. GOES SUVI 304 also observed some darker, filamentary material lifting off and deflecting to the SE. There is no clear evidence of CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-09T13:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 59.82 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-01-07T01:11Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement